Iran threatens to use undersea cables as a weapon: the implications
In a new escalation reflecting Tehran’s efforts to expand its influence, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to subject undersea fiber optic internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz to a strict “permit system.” This strategic move highlights Iran’s willingness to use undersea cables as a new weapon to pressure the international community, raising serious questions about its impact on one of the world’s most vital energy, trade, and communications arteries. While Iranian statements have not yet specified who would be subject to fees or permits—whether cable-laying companies, owners, operators, or even users—Tehran has emphasized its absolute sovereignty over the seabed and subsoil within its territorial waters.
The historical context of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has been a crucial maritime chokepoint, witnessing frequent geopolitical tensions over the past decades. Iran has long used its strategic location overlooking the strait as a political and military bargaining chip, particularly during periods of escalation with Western countries or when economic sanctions were imposed. While Iranian threats have historically focused on disrupting maritime traffic and oil tankers, technological advancements and the increasing global reliance on the internet have made digital infrastructure a new target. This shift toward targeting communications infrastructure represents a significant evolution in Iranian strategy, as Tehran recognizes that disrupting or restricting data flows can cause economic paralysis comparable to, or even exceeding, the impact of traditional energy crises.
Map of submarine cables in the region
Key infrastructure passing through the Strait of Hormuz includes a branch of the AAE-1 (Asia-Africa-Europe) cable, a long and vital submarine cable system connecting Asia to Europe via the Middle East, with points stretching from Hong Kong to France, passing through Egypt. Additionally, the Falcon and Gulfbridge cables also traverse the strait, connecting the Gulf states, including Iran, to India, East Africa, and Egypt. According to global telecommunications experts, all types of data flow through these digital routes, from videos, emails, and social media to sensitive financial transactions and government communications.
Regional and international repercussions of the submarine cable threat
The Iranian threat to impose restrictions on submarine cables has varying impacts at the local, regional, and international levels. Regionally, some countries that rely directly on specific routes could be affected. For example, any disruption to the AAE-1 cable branch could significantly impact the quality and speed of communications in countries like Qatar, given its route through the Strait of Hormuz to Doha. Internationally, the likelihood of a complete global outage appears limited at present, as the majority of data flowing between Europe and Asia does not pass exclusively through this branch. Moreover, Gulf states have several alternative communication systems, both submarine and terrestrial. However, experts warn that the capacity of these alternative terrestrial networks may not be sufficient to accommodate and reroute all data traffic should the Gulf's submarine systems suffer significant damage or a complete shutdown. This could lead to a noticeable slowdown in digital services and negative impacts on global financial markets and e-commerce.
