Weather forecast for the first quarter of 2026: Rain and heat in Saudi Arabia
The National Center for Meteorology in Saudi Arabia has released its detailed climate report for the first quarter of 2026, covering the period from January to March. The report provides a forward-looking view of weather patterns, relying on advanced climate simulation models designed to support relevant authorities in early planning and resource management, particularly in light of the climate changes occurring globally and regionally.
The importance of seasonal climate forecasts
These seasonal reports are a cornerstone for several vital sectors in the Kingdom. The agricultural sector relies on them to determine expected planting and harvesting dates based on rainfall levels. They also play a pivotal role in the preparedness of civil defense and crisis management to deal with any heavy rainfall that may lead to flash floods and overflowing wadis, thus enhancing the safety of lives and property.
January 2026: The start of a year with heavy rainfall
According to the center's data, the first quarter begins in January with promising forecasts, predicting above-average ranging from heavy to very heavy. This weather activity is particularly concentrated in the northern and eastern regions, including:
- Northern Border Region.
- Al-Jawf region (excluding its western parts).
- Hail region (excluding the southern parts).
- West and central Medina region and parts of its east.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Kingdom's regions remain within normal or slightly lower ranges during this month.
February and March: Rainfall will continue around the average
As we move into February, forecasts indicate a relative stability in the rainfall pattern, which will be around average (moderate to heavy) in vital areas including Jazan, eastern Asir, eastern Makkah, in addition to southern Riyadh and the southern part of the Eastern Province.
This pattern continues into March, with rainfall expected to be around the normal average in Najran (except for the west), northeast of Mecca, south of Riyadh, and the Eastern Province, with the chance of rain extending to parts of Medina and Tabuk. This geographical distribution of rainfall directly contributes to replenishing groundwater reserves and stimulating spring vegetation.
A noticeable rise in temperatures
Regarding temperatures, the meteorological report revealed a notable phenomenon: average surface temperatures will be above average across all regions of the Kingdom during the first quarter of 2026. Analysis indicates that the increase could reach approximately (+1.0) degrees Celsius in specific areas, namely:
- Central, southern, and eastern parts of the Eastern Province.
- East of Najran region.
- East and southeast of the Riyadh region.
This rise reflects global trends towards a warmer winter, which calls for continuous monitoring of the daily weather bulletins issued by the center to keep up with any immediate weather fluctuations that may contradict long-term seasonal forecasts.
