Shocking figures for migrant victims in the Red Sea during 2025
The UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) has revealed alarming statistics highlighting a worsening humanitarian crisis, reporting that more than 900 migrants were killed or went missing in the Red Sea during 2025. This tragic record made it the "deadliest year on record" for perilous journeys across the so-called "Eastern Route," the sea and land corridor linking the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
The historical roots of the migrant crisis in the Red Sea and the Eastern Route
For decades, the “Eastern Route” has been a major path for irregular migration. Every year, tens of thousands of people, primarily from Horn of Africa countries like Ethiopia and Somalia, risk their lives on perilous journeys that often begin with crossing the sea from the coasts of Djibouti or Somalia. Historically, these migrations were driven by the search for work and a better life in the oil-rich Gulf states. However, the escalation of armed conflicts, the recurrence of natural disasters such as droughts and floods, and deteriorating economic conditions have transformed these journeys from mere searches for sustenance into desperate attempts at survival.
Internal conflicts and poverty: the main drivers of migration
Tania Pacifico, head of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) mission, stated that 2025 was a catastrophic year with 922 deaths and disappearances, double the number of victims recorded the previous year. She noted that the vast majority of these victims were from Ethiopia. Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa, with approximately 130 million inhabitants. According to World Bank data, more than 40 percent of this population lives below the extreme poverty line. Adding to the country's woes, it recently emerged from a brutal civil war in the northern Tigray region, which claimed the lives of more than 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022, according to African Union estimates—figures that many experts believe are likely an undercount.
Regional humanitarian repercussions and the impact of the crisis on neighboring countries
The repercussions of this crisis are not limited to the countries of origin of migrants; they extend to create a humanitarian and security burden at the regional level. Locally in Ethiopia, recent reports indicate that approximately 1,300 people have died from starvation and severe shortages of medicine in displacement camps in the Tigray region since the end of the war. Regionally, many migrants who manage to survive the perilous sea crossings find themselves stranded in Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Arabian Peninsula, which has been embroiled in a devastating civil war for nearly a decade. There, these migrants struggle to survive in extremely harsh humanitarian conditions, forcing some to make the desperate decision to return via the same dangerous route.
Economic outlook and the future of migration flows
From an economic and international perspective, UN agencies are closely monitoring the situation. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that Ethiopia’s projected economic growth, potentially reaching around 10 percent in 2026, could help reduce some migration flows along the eastern route. However, significant challenges remain. High inflation rates, which approached 10 percent last February, are likely to undermine this anticipated economic progress, meaning that migration pressures will persist and intensify. Addressing this ongoing tragedy requires concerted international efforts to provide urgent humanitarian assistance and tackle the root causes of poverty and conflict in the Horn of Africa.
