The end of the New START treaty: Fears of a new nuclear arms race
In a significant development that is reshaping the global security landscape, Russia announced on Wednesday that it is no longer bound by the terms of the New START nuclear treaty with the United States, coinciding with its official expiration on Thursday. This announcement brings to an end the last major agreement regulating the nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers, opening the door to a period of strategic uncertainty and serious concerns about a new, unchecked arms race.
The end of the last nuclear deterrent
The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed in an official statement that the parties to the treaty are no longer bound by any mutual commitments or declarations, effectively meaning the collapse of the limits that had defined the number of nuclear warheads and strategic delivery systems. Despite this disengagement from obligations, Moscow attempted to reassure the international community. During his talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia would act “wisely and responsibly” in the nuclear sphere, expressing openness to negotiations to ensure strategic stability.
Historical context and strategic importance of the treaty
The New START Treaty holds immense historical significance, having been signed in 2010 in Prague, Czech Republic, by then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev. The treaty aimed to reduce tensions inherited from the Cold War era, setting a limit of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 strategic missiles and bombers for each side. It also included a robust verification and data-sharing mechanism, which fostered transparency and mutual trust between Washington and Moscow.
However, the treaty process suffered a major setback in February 2023, when Russia suspended its participation in it due to escalating tensions over the war in Ukraine and Western support for Kyiv, leading to a halt in mutual inspections.
The American position and the Chinese equation
On the other hand, Washington is exercising extreme caution in its responses. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the administration has no immediate announcement, indicating that President Donald Trump will address the issue later. The key point of the new US position is its insistence on expanding any future negotiations to include China.
The US side believes that any arms control agreement in the 21st century cannot be purely bilateral, given the rapid growth of China's nuclear arsenal. This shift signals a transition from a bipolar deterrence system (US and Russia) to a more complex and dangerous trilateral deterrence system.
The implications of the absence of the treaty on international security
The expiration of New START without a ready replacement poses a significant risk to international peace and security. The absence of data sharing and inspection procedures increases the potential for miscalculation and mutual distrust among major powers. Experts warn that the world could be heading toward a quantitative and qualitative arms race, as each country seeks to bolster its deterrent capabilities in the absence of legal constraints—a scenario the Kremlin itself has cautioned against, describing the situation as potentially becoming “more dangerous than ever before.”.
