China is developing new nuclear weapons, according to US intelligence warning
Accelerating the pace of Chinese nuclear modernization
Recent US intelligence reports indicate that China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons, a move described as a radical shift in its military strategy. Assessments based on multiple sources suggest that Beijing conducted at least one covert, low-yield nuclear test in 2020 as part of a broader effort to modernize its entire nuclear arsenal, aiming to make it the most technologically advanced in the world. This development has sparked considerable debate within intelligence and international circles about China's future intentions and whether it is moving toward abandoning its historical nuclear doctrine.
Historical background: From limited deterrence to rapid expansion
China first acquired nuclear weapons in 1964 and has since adopted a “no first use” policy, maintaining what it calls a “minimum credible deterrent.” This strategy has meant possessing a limited number of nuclear warheads sufficient to deter any potential nuclear attack. However, recent reports, including the Pentagon’s annual reports, indicate that China is moving toward a significant and rapid expansion. The U.S. Department of Defense projects that China will possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, a dramatic increase from its current estimated stockpile of 400–500.
The importance of the event and its expected impact
At the heart of China’s modernization lies the development of advanced technologies that are changing the nature of the nuclear threat. These efforts include the development of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) missile systems, which allow a single missile to strike multiple targets simultaneously. In addition, China appears to be developing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, something it has not previously produced. These tactical weapons are of particular concern because they could lower the psychological threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in regional conflicts, such as a potential scenario for the US defense of Taiwan.
Regional and international impact
Internationally, China’s nuclear expansion is seen as a direct challenge to the nuclear dominance of the United States and Russia, which together possess roughly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. This development could push the world toward a three-way arms race, complicating arms control efforts and undermining existing strategic stability treaties. Regionally, this modernization is altering the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, increasing the anxiety of China’s neighbors, such as India and Japan, and potentially prompting them to bolster their defense capabilities. U.S. officials now believe that the evidence gathered, particularly regarding the 2020 test, strongly supports the theory that China is no longer content with limited deterrence but is striving for strategic parity with the major nuclear powers.
