Trump warns Iran ahead of Geneva nuclear talks: Deal or consequences
US President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Tehran, threatening severe consequences if no agreement is reached, just hours before a new round of indirect talks between the United States and the Islamic Republic began in Geneva, Switzerland. These remarks come amid escalating military tensions and a war of words in the region.
Firm messages from aboard "Air Force One"
Speaking to reporters on Monday aboard Air Force One en route to Washington, Trump confirmed his indirect involvement in the talks, indicating the other side's desire to reach a deal. "They want to make a deal, and I don't think they want to face the consequences of not making a deal," the US president stated clearly, implicitly suggesting the continuation of the maximum pressure campaign or the potential for military and economic escalation should the diplomatic track fail.
Diplomatic moves and a "realistic" Iranian stance
On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Geneva to participate in the second round of talks scheduled for Tuesday, a continuation of the previous round held in Muscat in early February. Official Iranian reports indicated that Tehran senses a "more realistic" American stance on its nuclear program, which could pave the way for potential understandings despite the complexities surrounding the situation.
Military context: Maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz
These talks are taking place amid heightened military tensions, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard launching exercises in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil. This coincides with Washington's increased military presence in the region, including the deployment of an aircraft carrier and the dispatch of another to join it, reflecting a strategy of "negotiating under fire" and a show of force by both sides to improve their negotiating positions.
Background of the conflict and the importance of the agreement
The current tension stems from the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018 and the reimposition of crippling economic sanctions on Tehran. The current rounds of talks in Geneva and Muscat aim to find a new formula that would curtail Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief—a thorny issue that has remained unresolved for years due to mutual distrust.
Expected regional and international impacts
This event is of paramount importance, extending far beyond bilateral relations. Successful talks could lead to lower global oil prices and market stability, as well as de-escalate tensions in the Arabian Gulf and the wider Middle East. Conversely, failure could plunge the region into a nuclear arms race or direct military confrontations, potentially disrupting international shipping and global energy security. This has drawn the world's attention to Geneva with intense anticipation.
