Climate forecast for the summer of 2026 in Saudi Arabia
The National Center for Meteorology in Saudi Arabia has released its new report outlining the climate forecast for the summer of 2026, covering the months of June, July, and August. This report provides accurate and comprehensive climate indicators across the Kingdom's various regions, aiming to support early preparedness efforts and enhance the readiness of all relevant government and service agencies to address any unusual weather conditions or climate fluctuations that the country may experience in the coming months.
Rainfall indicators within the summer climate forecast
According to official data from the center, rainfall in June is expected to be around the normal average across all regions of the Kingdom. However, estimates for July indicate that rainfall will be below average in the Jazan, Al-Baha, and parts of Asir, Makkah, Najran, and Eastern Province regions, while remaining around the usual average in the rest of the country.
As for August, the report expects rainfall to continue to fall below the normal annual average in Jazan, Al-Baha, and parts of Tabuk, Madinah, Makkah, Asir, Najran, and the Eastern Province, while remaining normal in the rest of the Saudi regions.
Heat waves exceeding normal annual averages
Regarding temperatures, forecasts indicate a noticeable increase in average surface temperatures above the normal average in all regions of the Kingdom during the summer season, with varying degrees of this increase from one region to another.
Specifically, experts predict that June will see temperatures rise by up to 1.0°C above average in the Jazan, Al-Baha, and parts of Makkah, Asir, Madinah, Riyadh, Qassim, Hail, and Tabuk regions. The heat will intensify during July and August, with temperatures expected to reach approximately 1.6°C above average in Jazan, Al-Baha, and parts of Asir and Makkah.
Global climate change and its impact on the Arabian Peninsula
These periodic reports come amidst accelerating climate changes affecting the entire planet, with recent years recording record-breaking temperatures due to global climate phenomena such as El Niño and global warming. Historically, the Arabian Peninsula has been characterized by its aridity and high summer temperatures, but current changes are imposing more severe and extreme weather patterns, necessitating ongoing studies and accurate forecasts based on advanced numerical modeling.
The importance of these climate forecasts lies in their direct impact on local and regional planning. Locally, this data enables the water, agriculture, and electricity sectors to manage their resources efficiently to meet increased demand during peak summer. It also helps health and civil defense authorities develop proactive plans to mitigate the risks of heat stress and dry fires. Regionally and internationally, this data enhances our understanding of air mass movements in the region, contributing to improved accuracy in global climate models used by international meteorological and environmental organizations.
