Agreement to end the war in Ukraine: Two obstacles delaying a resolution
In a significant development in the diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis that has gripped the world for years, the US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, affirmed that a comprehensive agreement to end the war is imminent, describing the current stage as the "final ten meters" and the most difficult phase of the negotiations. Kellogg explained that the final announcement of the agreement now hinges entirely on resolving two key outstanding issues: determining the future of the disputed Donbas region and the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
The final two obstacles: land and energy
The American official indicated in his recent remarks that the dispute is currently limited to issues related to sovereignty and energy security. The first issue concerns the future of the Donbas region in the east, which includes the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and has been the main epicenter of the conflict. The second issue is the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest of its kind in Europe, which is currently under Russian control, making it a major strategic bargaining chip in the balance of power between the two sides.
The context of the conflict and its historical roots
To understand the complexities of these two obstacles, one must consider the historical background of the conflict. The Donbas region was not solely a product of the war that erupted in February 2022; it had been the scene of ongoing tensions since 2014. Determining the legal and administrative status of these coal- and mineral-rich industrial areas is crucial for both sides. Furthermore, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is a vital energy hub for Ukraine, and its capture has raised widespread international concerns regarding nuclear security, prompting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to repeatedly call for the establishment of a safe zone around it.
Strategic importance and international influence
Resolving these two dilemmas would not only mean a ceasefire, but would also have enormous geopolitical and economic implications at both the regional and international levels. Restoring stability around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would allay European fears of a potential nuclear disaster, and resolving the border issue in Donbas could pave the way for a gradual lifting of sanctions and a return to normal energy and grain supplies, leading to more stable global food and fuel prices.
Kellogg concluded his remarks on a cautiously optimistic note, saying, "If we resolve these two issues, I think the rest will go well, and we're almost there, really close," indicating that the international community is very cautiously awaiting the resolution of these obstacles to turn the page on one of the most violent conflicts of the 21st century.
