Russia ends its commitment to the New START nuclear treaty: details and implications
In a significant development that casts a shadow over the global strategic security landscape, Russia has officially announced that it no longer considers itself bound by the terms of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States. This announcement puts an end to speculation about the future of the agreement, which was set to expire on February 5th, and opens the door to a new phase of strained relations between the world's two largest nuclear powers.
The Russian Foreign Ministry, in an official statement, conveyed Moscow’s firm position, saying: “We assume that the parties to the New START Treaty are no longer bound by any mutual commitments or declarations within the framework of the treaty.” This statement is not merely a procedural formality, but rather a fundamental shift in the arms control doctrine that has governed relations between Moscow and Washington for decades.
What is the New START treaty?
To understand the seriousness of this announcement, one must consider the historical background of this treaty. The New START treaty was signed in Prague in 2010 and entered into force in 2011. This treaty is considered the last remaining cornerstone of nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia, which together possess approximately 90% of the world's nuclear warheads.
The treaty stipulated a limit of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads per country and capped the number of deployed bombers and ballistic missiles at 700. Furthermore, the treaty included rigorous verification and monitoring mechanisms, such as data exchange and reciprocal on-site inspections of nuclear facilities, which ensured a minimum level of transparency and trust between the parties.
Erosion of the arms control system
This Russian decision comes amid a continuing deterioration of the structure of international arms control agreements. The United States and Russia withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, and Washington also withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty. With the suspension of the New START treaty, the world faces the very real risk of having no legal constraints on nuclear arsenals for the first time since the Cold War.
International repercussions and anticipated risks
Ending the treaty carries serious strategic risks at both the regional and international levels. First, the absence of information sharing and inspections leads to a state of “strategic ambiguity,” where each party may misjudge the capabilities and intentions of the other, increasing the likelihood of a new and costly arms race.
Second, this decision sends a worrying message to non-nuclear states and weakens the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. The lack of commitment from major powers to reduce their arsenals could prompt other countries to seek their own deterrent capabilities, threatening global stability. Experts believe the world may be entering a more dangerous and less predictable era in international relations, one in which the safeguards that previously prevented a slide into full-scale nuclear confrontation are no longer in place.
