Renewed clashes between the Ethiopian army and Tigray threaten the peace agreement
In a dangerous development on the ground that threatens to undermine fragile peace efforts in the Horn of Africa, armed clashes broke out between the Ethiopian army and forces from the Tigray region, in the first direct military confrontation of its kind since the signing of the cessation of hostilities agreement in Pretoria in 2022. Informed diplomatic and security sources reported on Thursday that the fighting was concentrated in the "Tesmelt" area, located in western Tigray, a strategic region that has witnessed ongoing tensions and a complex administrative and military conflict.
The relative calm collapsed and flights were suspended
Sources confirmed that the recent clashes prompted immediate action, with Ethiopian Airlines, the only carrier operating flights to the region, announcing the suspension of all its flights to Tigray until further notice, reflecting the seriousness of the security situation on the ground. These developments end a period of relative calm that had prevailed in the region following the two-year-long bloody war, and have raised serious concerns about the country's return to the initial stages of civil conflict.
Background of the conflict and the importance of the Pretoria Agreement
To understand the gravity of this escalation, it is necessary to return to the recent historical context. Between November 2020 and November 2022, Ethiopia witnessed a brutal war between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). This war was not merely a border skirmish, but a full-blown conflict that resulted in the deaths of at least 600,000 people, according to estimates by the African Union. International human rights reports indicate that the figures may be much higher due to famine, lack of medical care, and the blockade imposed on the region at that time.
The African Union-brokered Pretoria Agreement in South Africa was intended to end hostilities, stipulating the disarmament and reintegration of Tigrayan forces and the return of federal authority to the region. However, the slow implementation of some provisions and the continued disputes over contested areas have kept the embers of the crisis smoldering.
The complexities of disputed areas
The Tesmelt region and parts of western Tigray are of particular importance in this conflict, as they are claimed by forces from the neighboring Amhara region, which was a key ally of the Ethiopian federal army during the previous war. The Amhara consider these lands historically theirs, while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) insists they belong to the region according to the current Ethiopian constitution. This ethnic and geographic overlap makes any clash in these areas a potential spark for a wider conflict that could draw in other regional and local actors, jeopardizing the stability of Ethiopia and the entire Horn of Africa.
