The future of Hajj seasons: A comprehensive climatic and temporal analysis up to the year 2077 AD
Professor Abdullah Al-Musnad, former professor of climatology at Qassim University and vice president of the Saudi Weather and Climate Society, revealed a comprehensive analytical and statistical study forecasting the future of Hajj seasons up to the year 2077 CE (1500 AH). This study sheds light on the expected climatic and temporal changes in the timing of the month of Dhul-Hijjah and the day of Eid al-Adha, based on a timeline spanning 54 Hijri years, beginning in 1447 AH (2026 CE).
The historical cycle and climate changes of Hajj seasons
Historically, Islamic religious rituals have been linked to the lunar Hijri calendar, which is approximately 11 days shorter than the solar Gregorian calendar each year. This slight difference results in a gradual shift in the timing of the pilgrimage relative to the solar year. Consequently, pilgrims circumambulate the Kaaba and stand on Mount Arafat in varying climatic conditions that change gradually over the years. Historical records demonstrate that this climatic diversity has always required considerable flexibility from both the organizing authorities and the pilgrims themselves to adapt to the scorching summer heat or the bitter cold of winter, reflecting the wisdom of Islamic law in allowing worship to occur throughout the year.
Distributing the obligatory prayers across the seasons of the year
The analysis revealed that the obligatory prayers during the study period would be distributed across the seasons in varying proportions. Winter would have the largest share, occurring 17 times across two periods: 1454-1461 AH and 1487-1495 AH. Spring would come in second with 15 occurrences between 1447-1453 AH and 1479-1486 AH. Autumn would be third with 13 occurrences, while summer would be the least frequent, occurring 9 times consecutively between 1470-1478 AH.
The data reveals a clear time cycle for the Hajj pilgrimage, with the first winter period beginning on March 11, 2033 (1454 AH) and continuing until December 26, 2039 (1461 AH), before returning to winter again in 2065. This climatic cycle lasts approximately 33 Hijri years, during which pilgrims spend 8 to 9 consecutive years in winter weather within each cycle.
Eid days and the phenomenon of two Eids in one Gregorian year
Regarding the days of the week, Saturday tops the list as the day most frequently coinciding with Eid al-Adha (the 10th of Dhul-Hijjah) with 11 occurrences, followed by Monday with 10 occurrences, and then Wednesday and Thursday with 9 occurrences each. In contrast, Sunday, Tuesday, and Friday are the least frequent, with only 5 occurrences each. Al-Musnad also noted that the Day of Arafah coinciding with a Friday will occur 11 times during the study period. Among the remarkable astronomical phenomena observed by the study is the occurrence of two Eid al-Adha celebrations in the same Gregorian calendar year: the first in 2039 CE (January 5th and December 26th), and the second in 2071 CE (January 11th and December 31st).
The strategic importance of Hajj season forecasts
This forward-looking analysis of Hajj seasons of paramount importance at the local, regional, and international levels. Locally in Saudi Arabia, this accurate data supports long-term strategic planning efforts, enabling relevant authorities to develop infrastructure in the holy sites and prepare the health and logistical systems to adapt to anticipated climate changes, whether by providing advanced cooling systems in the summer or heating facilities in the winter. Regionally and internationally, knowing these dates and weather conditions in advance allows Hajj missions from around the world to plan flights well in advance and issue precise health and awareness guidelines for their pilgrims, thus ensuring increased operational efficiency and the provision of the best possible services to the guests of God in a safe and comfortable environment.
