Poll: 51% of Europeans expect war with Russia soon
A recent opinion poll has revealed radical shifts in public sentiment within the Old Continent, with a large number of Europeans that the continent is on a knife's edge and that there is a real and significant risk of war breaking out with Russia in the near future.
These growing concerns were revealed in opinion poll conducted by the “Cluster 17” group and published by the French magazine “Le Grand Continent,” which included 9 major countries in the European Union .
The geopolitical context and escalating tensions
These findings come at a time when the European continent is experiencing its worst security crisis since World War II, fueled by the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. The protracted nature of the conflict and the uncertainty surrounding its resolution have contributed to a heightened sense of existential threat among many European populations, particularly those sharing geographical or historical borders with Russia.
According to the survey of 9,553 people, more than half (51%) believe there is a high or very high risk of a direct military confrontation between their countries and Moscow in the coming years. The sample included key countries such as France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Geography dictates the concerns: Poland is in the lead
The data revealed a clear disparity in perceived risk based on a country's geographical location. In Poland, situated directly on the front line and bordering Belarus (a Moscow ally), anxiety was overwhelming, with 77% of respondents viewing the risk of war as very high. This figure reflects Poland's historical memory and its enduring fear of Russian expansion.
In contrast, southern European countries appeared less concerned, with 65% of Italians viewing the risk as low or nonexistent, a finding that could be explained by differing political priorities and geographical distance from the hotspots of conflict in the east. Among the traditional powers of the Union, the level of concern was 54% in France and 51% in Germany.
Crisis of confidence in European military capabilities
Perhaps the most worrying outcome for policymakers in Brussels is not just the fear of war, but the lack of confidence in the ability to wage it. Participants expressed significant doubts about the military readiness of their national armies.
More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) felt their countries were “completely unable” or “rather incapable” of defending themselves against any potential Russian aggression without external assistance. This figure underscores Europe’s historical dependence on the US security umbrella and NATO, and raises questions about the viability of recent calls for greater European “strategic autonomy.”.
The French exception and nuclear deterrence
France stands as a relative exception to this grim picture, being the only EU member state with an independent nuclear arsenal following Brexit. This has boosted public confidence, with 44% of French citizens believing their country is “somewhat” or “reasonably” capable of defending itself—a high percentage compared to its neighbors.
In stark contrast, pessimism prevailed in other countries, with Belgians, Italians, and Portuguese overwhelmingly (between 85% and 87%) believing their countries were incapable of repelling a Russian attack on their own. Notably, the survey also indicated that concerns were specifically focused on Russia, with a large majority (81%) ruling out any military conflict with China in the near future.
