Norway warns of growing Russian and Chinese influence in Svalbard
Amidst rapidly shifting geopolitical dynamics that are reshaping the global balance of power, a recent report by the Norwegian Military Intelligence Service reveals intensified strategic moves by both Russia and China aimed at bolstering their influence in the strategic Svalbard archipelago and the Arctic region. This report serves as a warning bell regarding the future of security in the far north, coinciding with the international community's preoccupation with other pressing issues such as the tensions surrounding Greenland.
The strategic importance of the Svalbard archipelago
The Svalbard archipelago enjoys a vital geographical location in the Arctic Ocean, making it a key gateway for controlling northern shipping lanes. Although sovereignty over the archipelago rests with Norway under the 1920 Treaty of Svalbard, the treaty grants signatory states equal economic rights—a legal loophole that Moscow exploits to maintain a permanent foothold there. A Norwegian intelligence report, which includes the annual threat assessment, indicates that Moscow considers its presence in Svalbard an imperative dictated by Russian national security considerations and the archipelago's strategic location.
Russia and the pursuit of logistical independence in Barentsburg
The report focused particularly on Barentsburg, the archipelago's second-largest town and a coal-mining center with a population of both Russian and Ukrainian citizens. According to Norwegian intelligence, there are clear indications that the Kremlin is seeking to reduce the town's reliance on Norwegian infrastructure for supply and transport, a move aimed at achieving greater logistical independence. The report warned that the regular visits of Russian ships to the port of Barentsburg are not merely routine activities, but rather deliberate steps to consolidate the Russian presence and establish a new reality in the region.
China and the Polar Silk Road
The Norwegian warning was not limited to Russian activities but also included the noticeable growth of Chinese influence. Beijing views the Arctic as a vital part of its "Polar Silk Road" initiative, capitalizing on melting ice to open new trade routes. The report explained that the Chinese presence has become more visible and intensive; in 2025, Norway detected five Chinese research vessels operating in the Arctic Ocean, compared to three in 2024 and only one in previous years, reflecting China's escalating interest in the region for research purposes that may have dual strategic and military dimensions.
The fracturing of the global order and the challenges facing NATO
In a related context, Norwegian officials linked these developments to broader tensions between the West and the East. The head of Norway's intelligence service, Andreas Stensons, stated that "the world order as we know it is crumbling," noting that Beijing and Moscow see Western divisions as an opportunity to expand their influence. The report also addressed the geopolitical tensions stemming from recent US policies and President Donald Trump's statements regarding Greenland, which have negatively impacted NATO cohesion and created strategic uncertainty for 2026 and beyond. The Norwegian defense minister emphasized that transatlantic relations have become more volatile, posing unprecedented challenges to Norwegian and European national security.
