The French army is preparing for the possibility of open war with Russia
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, attention is focused on recent military developments, with the French, General Fabien Mandon, emphasizing the need for serious preparation for the possibility of an "open war" with Russia. This serious statement necessitates accelerating the strengthening of French defense capabilities to confront unprecedented security challenges.
Historical context and escalating tensions in Europe
The warnings from the French military leadership did not come out of thin air; rather, they are a direct result of historical developments and rapidly unfolding events that began to take clear shape with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2012. This crisis redrawn the security map of Europe, prompting NATO countries, particularly France, to reassess their military strategies. Historically, Europe has relied on policies of diplomatic deterrence and economic interdependence to avoid conflicts. However, recent Russian military actions have demonstrated that hard power remains a decisive factor in international relations, forcing Paris to abandon its post-Cold War policy of reducing military spending.
French military plan to boost defense budget
During a hearing before the parliamentary defense committee dedicated to reviewing the updated military programming law, General Mandon explained that the ongoing Russian threat in Europe, with the continued possibility of open warfare, remains the primary concern regarding the preparedness of the armed forces. The new bill allocates a substantial additional €36 billion to the armed forces, on top of the already record-breaking budget of €413 billion for the period between 2024 and 2030. This significant investment aims to modernize the military arsenal and ensure full readiness for any contingency.
A look at the numbers and Russian military capabilities
The French warnings were based on precise intelligence assessments indicating a significant increase in Russian military capabilities. The Chief of Staff noted that estimates projected Russia's troop strength to reach 1.3 million in 2025 and 1.9 million by 2030. Furthermore, the number of Russian heavy tanks is expected to rise from 4,000 in 2025 to 7,000 in 2030, while maintaining a formidable naval force of between 230 and 240 warships. These figures reflect a Russian shift toward a war economy, posing formidable challenges to European militaries.
Regional and international repercussions of military actions
The heightened state of alert among French forces has far-reaching regional and international implications. Domestically, this shift necessitates preparing French public opinion to accept increased military spending, a point Mandon emphasized: “We are in a dangerous phase. We shouldn’t panic, but we must remain vigilant, because we need this investment in defense to protect our citizens and our interests.”.
Regionally, the French stance sends a reassuring message to Paris's allies in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, reaffirming France's commitment to the security of the European continent within the framework of NATO. Internationally, this escalation reflects a renewed arms race among major powers, which could lead to a reshaping of global alliances and a shift in the strategic balance of power in the foreseeable future.
