The El Niño phenomenon threatens Saudi Arabia with an extremely hot summer and torrential rains in the west
The Regional Center for Climate Change in Saudi Arabia has warned of severe heat waves and potential flash floods that could strike western Saudi Arabia, due to the high probability of an El Niño climate phenomenon and sea surface temperatures exceeding their normal averages in the coming months. A recent report issued by the center on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon explained that the current climate situation is neutral, based on the latest documented observations, but monthly indicators suggest rapid shifts that could directly impact the region's weather patterns.
What is the El Niño phenomenon and how does it originate historically?
is El Niño a prominent natural climate pattern that occurs periodically every few years, characterized by an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Historically, this phenomenon has been linked to significant changes in global weather patterns, disrupting trade winds and rainfall distribution worldwide. These fluctuations directly affect the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, causing noticeable changes in temperature, humidity, and seasonal rainfall.
Expected heat surges and worrying indicators
According to the report issued by the regional center, the El Niño 3.4 index registered approximately +0.39°C, remaining within the safe and neutral range for the phenomenon, which typically fluctuates between -0.80°C and +0.80°C. However, future monthly readings indicate a high probability of a strengthening El Niño event between May and October of this year, as sea surface temperatures are expected to exceed +0.8°C.
Experts predict an upward trajectory of temperature differences starting from “+1.1” degrees Celsius in May, passing through “+1.4” in June, and “+1.8” in July, with the jumps continuing to record “+2.3” in August and “+2.5” in September, until it reaches its peak at “+2.8” degrees Celsius by October 2026.
Expected local and regional impacts of weather fluctuations
These climate shifts have direct and tangible repercussions at the local and regional levels. Locally, the chances of heavy rainfall and the risk of flash floods are increasing in the western parts of Saudi Arabia, particularly during the autumn months of September, October, and November. The effects of this rainfall are also expected to extend to large areas of the country during the upcoming rainy season, which begins in October 2026 and continues until May 2027.
Regionally and internationally, this phenomenon contributes to reshaping the agricultural map and water security, as droughts in some parts of the world and floods in others put pressure on food supply chains and raise global temperatures to record levels, requiring international coordination to reduce the associated environmental and economic risks.
Heavy rains and a reduction in winter cold waves
The climate report indicated that the southwestern highlands of the Kingdom are expected to receive rainfall exceeding normal levels during the upcoming summer. Regarding temperatures, the center confirmed the likelihood of significant increases in average maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the year, suggesting a worsening of heat waves during the upcoming summer and autumn seasons.
This anticipated rise in temperature will, in turn, reduce the chances of cooler weather and lower nighttime temperatures, as well as diminish the likelihood of severe cold waves during the upcoming winter. The center concluded its report by noting the inherent uncertainty in the forecasts based on numerical models, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and observation to ensure the accuracy of climate calculations and provide early warnings to relevant authorities and the public.
