Irregular migration to Spain is expected to decline by 42% in 2025
Spain witnessed a remarkable shift in its migration landscape across the Mediterranean and Atlantic in 2025, with official data showing a significant decrease in the number of irregular migrants arriving in the country. According to figures published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior, the total number of migrants fell by 42.6% compared to the previous year, an indicator reflecting the impact of new border policies and recently concluded international agreements.
Immigration statistics: a disparity between the Canary and Balearic Islands
In terms of figures, 36,775 migrants arrived on Spanish soil during 2025, the vast majority of whom took the perilous sea routes, a decrease from the 64,019 migrants recorded in 2024, which was considered a record year for migration flows.
The most dramatic decline was in the Canary Islands archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean, long considered the main gateway for migrants from West Africa. Numbers there plummeted by 62%, with only 17,800 migrants arriving compared to 46,850 the previous year. In contrast, the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean saw a different dynamic, with arrivals rising by 24.5% (from 5,900 to 7,300), most of whom departed from the Algerian coast, suggesting a tactical shift in smugglers' routes.
Diplomatic role and strategic partnerships
This decline cannot be understood in isolation from the geopolitical context and the evolution of bilateral relations between Spain and transit countries. Observers attribute a significant portion of this decrease in the Canary Islands route to improved diplomatic and security relations between Madrid and Rabat. Morocco, whose coastline serves as a key departure point, has intensified border controls as part of joint cooperation to combat human trafficking networks.
At the European level, economic and security agreements played a crucial role. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) indicated that the sharp decline was also due to "strengthened enforcement measures in countries of departure." The strategic agreement signed by Mauritania with the European Union in 2024, which included €210 million in funding to enhance Nouakchott's capacity to control its borders and prevent boat departures, stands out here, as evidenced by the 2025 statistics.
The enormous human cost
Despite the decline in arrivals, the human cost of these journeys remains high and tragic. The NGO Caminando Fronteras estimated that more than 3,000 people died or went missing at sea while attempting to reach the European dream via the Spanish border in 2025. These figures confirm that tightened security measures, while successful in reducing numbers, can sometimes push migrants to take longer and more dangerous routes, necessitating a comprehensive approach that balances border security with humanitarian considerations.
