Brazil expects a record coffee harvest in 2026 exceeding 66 million bags
Official forecasts issued by the Brazilian food company (CONAB) revealed strong indicators pointing towards Brazil, which sits atop the world's coffee production, recording an unprecedented historical crop during 2026. The data indicates that the expected production volume will reach 66.2 million bags of green coffee, which represents a qualitative leap with a growth rate of 17.1% compared to the levels of 2025.
Breaking previous records
The government agency explained in its first report forecasting the 2026 coffee harvest that achieving these figures would surpass the previous record of 63.1 million bags set in 2020. This optimism is supported by favorable weather conditions and significant investments in the agricultural sector, further solidifying Brazil's position as a key player in shaping the global coffee market.
Growth factors and increasing cultivated areas
This projected growth is primarily due to the carefully planned expansion of cultivated land, estimated at approximately 1.9 million hectares, representing an annual increase of 4.1%. This expansion is not limited to horizontal growth but also includes a significant improvement in vertical yields and productivity, with an expected average production of 34.2 bags per hectare, a 12.4% increase compared to the previous season. Modern agricultural technology and sound farm management practices play a crucial role in maximizing the use of every inch of arable land.
Variety details: Arabica and Robusta
In terms of product types, Arabica coffee, the most sought-after and consumed variety globally due to its high quality, is expected to lead growth with production reaching 44.1 million bags, marking a significant jump of 23.3%. Meanwhile, production of Cornelon (Robusta) coffee, widely used in instant coffee production, is projected to rise to 22.1 million bags, representing an annual increase of 6.4%.
Economic importance and its impact on global markets
This announcement carries significant implications that extend far beyond Brazil's borders. As the world's leading coffee producer, any increase in its production directly contributes to the stability of global supply chains. This record harvest is expected to alleviate market concerns about supply shortages, potentially leading to price stability for end consumers worldwide. This growth also reflects the resilience of the Brazilian agricultural sector in overcoming the challenges of climate change that impacted crops in previous years, reinforcing confidence in the sustainable supply of coffee to international markets.
