China's maneuvers around Taiwan: Warnings of imminent war and a US arms deal
In a significant military escalation that portends profound geopolitical shifts in East Asia, China launched large-scale military exercises around Taiwan on Monday, dubbed “Mission Justice 2025.” These moves come amid heightened tensions, particularly following the United States’ approval of a massive arms deal with the island and statements from Japan that angered Beijing, prompting the Chinese Foreign Ministry to warn that the situation could spiral into “the danger of imminent war.”.
Details of the military maneuvers and troop buildups
The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army announced the start of joint military exercises involving the ground, naval, air, and missile forces. Command spokesperson Colonel Shi Yi explained that the maneuvers include live-fire drills targeting specific maritime areas north and southwest of Taiwan. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has observed an unprecedented buildup of Chinese military aircraft, including 89 aircraft—the highest number recorded in a single day since mid-October 2024—as well as 28 warships and a group of amphibious assault ships operating in the western Pacific.
International context: The US arms deal and Trump's return
Observers directly link the timing of these maneuvers to political developments in Washington. The Chinese moves came in response to the United States' approval in mid-December of an $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the second such sale since Donald Trump's return to the presidency. Beijing views these actions as support for separatist forces on the island, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stating that arming Taiwan will only "embolden pro-independence arrogance," and asserting that any attempts to obstruct reunification are doomed to failure.
Regional tensions and the Japanese role
Tensions were not limited to the US-China axis; they extended to Japan, a powerful regional neighbor. Recent weeks have witnessed sharp diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo, sparked by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks before parliament, in which she suggested that the use of force against Taiwan could justify a Japanese military response. This stance prompted China to summon the Japanese ambassador and demand a retraction of the statements, reflecting the interconnectedness of security interests in the region and the potential for any future conflict to escalate and involve other regional powers.
Historical background and strategic importance
The Taiwan issue is considered the most sensitive red line in Chinese foreign policy, as Beijing views the island as an integral part of its territory and adheres to the “One China” principle. Historically, the Taiwan Strait has been a flashpoint since 1949, but the recent military exercises are particularly significant due to the size of the forces involved and the sophistication of the weapons used. This escalation carries potential global repercussions, given the Taiwan Strait’s importance as a vital artery for international trade, through which a significant portion of the world’s shipping containers pass, and Taiwan’s central role in the semiconductor industry, making any military conflict there a direct threat to the global economy and supply chains.
